Presidential election odds 2024 live: Betting markets show Trump’s chances have dropped

Donald Trump had a substantial lead in his chances of winning the election in the betting markets.

But in the last few days his odds have plummeted on multiple platforms.

Kalshi, one of the prediction websites taking bets, had Trump’s chances of winning at 56 percent compared to Harris’ 44 percent on Friday morning.

On Tuesday, the former president was at 64 percent compared to Harris’ 36 percent.

On Polymarket, Trump’s odds of winning deteriorated from 67 percent on October 30 to 63 percent on Friday morning.

In Real Clear Politics’ average of the betting markets, Trump leads Harris by 60.6 to 38.1 percent.

Earlier this week, the Republican candidate was at 63.9 percent.

The Trump campaign has made a formal complaint to the Federal Election Commission accusing the Washington Post of making illegal in-kind contributions to the Harris campaign.

It comes after reports that the troubled newspaper had made a splurge in online advertising to shore itself up as subscribers left after it declined to endorse any candidate.

An analysis by Semafor suggested the result was that anti-Trump stories were being promoted online, while stories about Harris tended to be more neutral in tone.

Their six-page complaint concludes:

The facts support a reasonable inference that the Washington Post made, and Harris for President accepted, an illegal corporate contribution in the form of coordinated communication. Therefore the commssion should find reason to believe a violation has occurred, conduct an immediate investigation and assess an appropriate sanction for this corporate interference … In the alternative, the facts show that the Washington Post made an unreported independent expenditure. Therefore the commission should find reason to believe a violation has occurred and assess an appropriate penalty for this infusion of dark money into the 2024 campaign.

By Emily Goodin, senior White House correspondent

President Joe Biden will travel Philadelphia later today but he won’t appear with Kamala Harris while he’s in the critical battleground state.

He’ll instead talk to unions about his administration’s work.

And the president will make public comments while dealing with a public controversy surrounding his use of the word garbage and Donald Trump’s supporters.

The White House argued Biden was talking about a single Trump supporter who called Puerto Rico a ‘floating pile of garbage.’ But the Associated Press reported the press office changed the official transcript of Biden’s remarks so “supporters” became “supporter’s.”

Harris was quick to separate herself from Biden on the issue, saying ‘I strongly disagree with any criticism of people based on who they vote for.’ Democratic Senator Bob Casey, who is in a tough re-election bid, will also avoid the president while Biden is in the state.

Biden will head to his home in Wilmington after his Philly stop and then will visit his hometown of Scranton on Saturday.

Harris will hold the last rally of her campaign in Philadelphia on Monday night.

From Rob Crilly, Chief U.S. Political Correspondent in Dearborn

President Donald Trump is expected to visit a smart brunch stop in Dearborn, Michigan, as he continues to court Arab-Americans incensed by the Biden-Harris administration’s support for Israel’s war in Gaza.

The Great Commoner was screened from view by trucks and a barriers on Friday morning. But inside, customers sipped cappucinos and ordered French toast before security closed off the restaurant completely.

‘I’m very excited,’ said one woman ordering yoghurt and fruit.

Metro Detroit is home to the counrty’s biggest Arab-Americna population, with much of it centered in Dearborn. They could decide the outcome of the vote in a state that swung from Donald Trump in 2016 to Joe Biden in 2020.

The Great Commoner’s owner Sam Abbas confirmed the Trump visit to the Associated Press.

We expect some remarks around ending the war and bringing peace to the Middle East. I’m not here to get political. I’m not here to tell people which way I’m voting. I am simply here because our family is being slaughtered and we just want to end the war. Stop the bombing.

Expect protests. A truck sporting an anti-Trump ad is parked around the corner from the restaurant, with a reminder that he would be more pro-Israel than Harris.

The Cook Political Report projected Friday that the GOP could gain between two to five seats as they strive to take control of the Senate.

The minimum two gains are in Montana and West Virginia, according to Cook.

Races in Ohio, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan still remain toss ups.

New polling by Marist shows Kamala Harris with a slight edge in the so-called ‘blue wall’ states with just four days to go before the election.

Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin were traditionally Democratic strongholds for years until 2016 when Trump won them. Biden captured them in 2020, so they are up for grabs this election.

The polling found Harris is up three points in Michigan over Donald Trump 51 percent to 48 percent among likely voters. Among Independents, she is up six points.

More than 2.3 million people have already voted in Michigan. For those who have already voted in the election, Harris has 63 percent. Among those who have yet to vote, 59 percent said they support Trump.

In Pennsylvania, she’s up two points 50 percent to 48 percent. The polling shows a 19-point lead among Independents toward Harris. She also has 63 percent among voters who have already cast ballots. More than 1.6 million people have voted in the state.

In Wisconsin, she is up two points, 50 percent to 48 percent as well including by six points among Independents. She is also up fourteen points among those who say they have already voted. More than 1.2 million people have already voted there.

Both candidates are campaigning heavily in seven battleground states. But if the vice president wins all three blue wall states, she will clinch the necessary 270 electoral votes to win the White House.

Even if you don’t know a blockchain from a NFT, these numbers are hard to dismiss: More than $200 million from cryptocurrency companies is expected to be pumped into the 2024 election cycle as the tech industry works overtime to boost its political influence.

And the emerging tech giants aren’t selectively backing Republicans or Democrats -any candidate, from president all the way down to small congressional districts, who champions crypto puts themselves in a position to score the big bucks.

But will the political plays by so-called ‘Big Crypto’ pay off in the long run?

Crypto, which includes Bitcoin, Ethereum, Dogecoin and more, is a form of digital currency that can be used to make ‘decentralized’ transactions online without oversight by a bank or government.

The industry is keen on having a less-regulated playing field to serve as a sandbox for development of crypto. Opponents and monetary traditionalists, meanwhile, want additional regulations on the alternative, digital currencies.

Fairshake, a political action committee (PAC), and others pushing pro-crypto legislation are going big with nearly $119 million already spent out of $200 million raised.

And billionaire former President Donald Trump weighing in on the importance of the alternative financial industry as he campaigns for a White House return shows that it isn’t going away anytime soon.

Tucked away in the far northwest corner of country just before the cliffs drop off into the Pacific Ocean lies America’s last true bellwether county.

A decidedly purple place, the small, rural region of Clallam County in Washington boasts an unmatched record of voting for every presidential election winner since Ronald Reagan in 1980.

This is the longest success streak of any of America’s 3,143 counties.

Now all eyes are on this unassuming county once again to see which way the wind is blowing for 2024, as vice president Kamala Harris faces off against former president Donald Trump in a divisive, neck and neck race.

When traveling across Clallam County, the tight nature of the 2024 election is on full display.

Visitors heading west into town on Highway 101 are met with a series of Harris-Walz yard signs, shortly before a massive Trump-Vance banner shows up in the same stretch of field.

By Emily Goodin, senior White House correspondent

Kamala Harris and Donald Trump will hold duelling rallies within a dozen miles of each other in Milwaukee on Friday night as they battle it out for the battleground state.

Harris will spend the day in Wisconsin, making her closing pitch to voters there. Trump hold a rally in Michigan earlier in the day.

Polls show the race for the state’s 10 electoral votes is tied.

Four of the past six presidential elections in Wisconsin have been decided by less than a point, or fewer than 23,000 votes. Joe Biden won it in 2020 by less than a point. Trump won it over Hillary Clinton in 2016 by less than a point.

Democrats see Wisconsin – along with Pennsylvania and Michigan – as part of the ‘blue wall’ that will win them the election.

Harris is wrapping up her campaign in those states, Wisconsin on Friday; Michigan on Sunday and Pennsylvania on Monday.

As speculation mounts about what a Kamala Harris cabinet might look like if she wins, Washington politicos are curious: Will she push for a continuation of the Biden administration or try to unburden herself from his record and chart a fresh course?

For her first three years as vice president, Harris was burdened by Biden’s close-knit staff, who held her at an arm’s length but a win in the Nov. 5 election would afford her the opportunity to clean house and set her own agenda – and legacy.

If elected, Harris would strike three firsts, as not only the the first woman president but also, first black female and first South Asian elected to the nation’s highest office.

Those historic distinctions would likely set her on a path to creating the most diverse and forward-looking cabinet, just as she did when she took office as vice president.

But Harris already faces criticism for her record of poor management.

Her staff fell apart one by one as they fled her office complaining about her bullying behavior, short-fused temper, and exhaustive demands.

The White House altered the official transcript of a call President Biden did with Latino supporters where he appeared to call Trump supporters ‘garbage’, according to reports by the Associated Press.

The comments were made in response to a joke Tony Hinchcliffe made at Donald Trump’s Madison Square Garden rally about Puerto Rico being a ‘floating island of garbage.’

According to the official transcript prepared by White House stenographers, Biden said on the Tuesday call: ‘The only garbage I see floating out there is his supporters – his – his demonization of Latinos is unconscionable, and it’s un-American.’

However, the transcript released by the White House press office altered the word supporters. It said ‘supporter’s’ rather than a plural ‘supporters.’

This change, according to aides, corrects Biden’s statement to imply he was criticizing Hinchcliffe alone, not the millions of Americans voting for Trump, the Associated Press reported.

By Emily Goodin, senior White House correspondent

Donald Trump is trailing Kamala Harris in Pennsylvania’s early voting with a once reliable Republican voting bloc: seniors.

Republicans won the senior vote in the past five presidential elections.

In Pennsylvania, where voters over the age of 65 have cast nearly half of the early ballots, registered Democrats account for about 58% of that vote, compared to 35% for Republicans, according to an analysis by Politico.

Both parties having roughly equal numbers of registered voters aged 65 and older in the critical battleground state.

Polls also show Trump is trailing with that voting bracket. A Fox News poll of Pennsylvania found Trump is running 5 points behind Harris among voters ages 65 and over.

The senior vote is important in five of the seven battleground states — Pennsylvania, Arizona, Michigan, Wisconsin, and North Carolina — that have more voters over the age of 65 than the national average, according to census data.

Kamala Harris and Donald Trump are tied in in a new poll in the crucial state of Pennsylvania.

The USA TODAY/Suffolk poll shows the two candidates both on 49 percent support.

The survey of 500 voters was conducted from October 27 to October 30 and had a margin of error of 4.4 percentage points.

A poll of 300 likely voters in Erie County, a key battleground within Pennsylvania, was also tied with Harris and Trump both on 48 percent.

For the latest on where Trump and Harris stand in Pennsylvania and the other six battleground states visit DailyMail.com’s up-to-the-minute guide to polling and other crucial data about each one.

by Rob Crilly, Chief Political Correspondent

If 2016 was the education election, when voters divided depending on whether or not they had been to college, then 2024 is shaping up to be a battle of the sexes.

The full extent of the gender divide in America is laid bare in the latest DailyMail.com/J.L. Partners.

It found that former President Donald Trump has widened his lead with men, and now has a 22-point lead among male voters.

At the same time, Vice President Kamala Harris has extended her lead among female voters, and now has a 14-point lead with women.

It is an extraordinary number in a race that has been otherwise tight.

Donald Trump has sparked outrage after asking how Liz Cheney would feel with ‘guns trained on her face’ while speaking at a campaign event just days before the election.

Trump appeared in Glendale, Arizona with former Fox News host Tucker Carlson on Thursday night when he called Cheney a ‘dumb war hawk’ and suggested she face a firing squad.

‘She’s a radical war hawk,’ Trump began. ‘Let’s put her with a rifle standing there with nine barrels shooting at her, okay, let’s see how she feels about it. You know, when the guns are trained on her face.’

Trump had mentioned Liz Cheney’s father, former GOP Vice President Dick Cheney, before he unleashed the diatribe.

‘I don’t blame him for sticking with his daughter. But his daughter’s a very dumb individual, very dumb,’ Trump said.

Jennifer Lopez brought a dose of Hollywood glamour to the campaign trail as she urged voters in Nevada to give Kamala Harris a silver screen ending and expressed outrage over the Puerto Rico dig made at Donald Trump’s Madison Square Garden rally.

The actress and singer said she was a ‘lover’ and didn’t mean to ‘trash’ anyone – ‘even facing the biggest adversary I think America has ever had’ – but she had something to say about that ‘garbage’ comment.

According to the poll of 1,000 likely voters, her ‘biggest blunder’ is that she would ‘not change anything’ from the Biden administration.

Harris was asked on The View last month about what she would change about Biden’s presidency.

‘There is not a thing that comes to mind,’ Harris responded.

Harris defended the president’s record and added: ‘I’ve been a part of most of the decisions that have had impact.’

But for voters in the DailyMail.com poll, that answer could be fatal for her election chances.